Kariba vs Scotland Mabvuku Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.40 expected goals for Kariba and 1.08 for Scotland Mabvuku, a combined total of 1.48. That distribution gives Scotland Mabvuku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Scotland Mabvuku win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.40 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kariba home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Scotland Mabvuku away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Scotland Mabvuku to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 14% / 34% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.40 goals for Kariba and 1.08 for Scotland Mabvuku, a combined 1.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Kariba win14%

Draw34%

Scotland Mabvuku win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

86%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals43%

Over 2.5 goals19%

Over 3.5 goals6%

Both teams to score22%

Correct score

0–124.6%
0–022.9%
0–213.2%
1–19.8%
1–09.2%

Recent form

Kariba

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chicken Inn · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Agama · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Scotland Mabvuku · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Platinum · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Simba Bhora · 0-0 (D)

Scotland Mabvuku

2026-10-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Petro de Luanda · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariba · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Agama · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nsingizini Hotspurs · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier Soccer League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hardrock	32	21	6	5	36	69
2	Scotland Mabvuku	30	17	10	3	34	61
3	Ngezi Platinum	32	14	14	4	13	56
4	Dynamos	32	12	16	4	17	52
5	CAPS United	31	13	12	6	11	51
6	Herentals	32	14	6	12	-1	48
7	MWOS	32	11	12	9	9	45
8	Highlanders	32	9	17	6	4	44
9	Platinum	32	9	16	7	0	43
10	Chicken Inn	31	11	10	10	-1	43
11	Simba Bhora	32	9	12	11	-2	39
12	Hunters	32	7	15	10	-10	36
13	Bulawayo Chiefs	32	8	10	14	-11	34
14	Kariba	32	6	15	11	-9	33
15	Agama	32	8	7	17	-20	31
16	Triangle United	32	6	9	17	-15	27
17	TelOne	32	4	10	18	-24	22
18	Manica Diamonds	32	4	9	19	-31	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Scotland Mabvuku win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.