Kariobangi Sharks vs Homeboyz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Kariobangi Sharks and 0.65 for Homeboyz, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives Kariobangi Sharks the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

74.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.88 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kariobangi Sharks home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kariobangi Sharks to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 36% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Kariobangi Sharks and 0.65 for Homeboyz, a combined 1.53 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 20% and both teams to score at 28%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.

Match result (1X2)

Kariobangi Sharks win39%

Draw36%

Homeboyz win26%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

64%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals45%

Over 2.5 goals20%

Over 3.5 goals7%

Both teams to score28%

Correct score

0–021.8%
1–019.0%
0–114.1%
1–112.4%
2–08.3%

Recent form

Kariobangi Sharks

2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mombasa Elite · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sofapaka · 6-0 (W)
2026-05-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Homeboyz · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nairobi United · 2-0 (W)

Homeboyz

2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Leopards · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Murang'a SEAL · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	GOR Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Posta Rangers FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Bandari	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Police	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Murang'a SEAL	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Mombasa Elite	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	3K	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.