Kariobangi Sharks vs Murang'a SEAL Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Kariobangi Sharks and 1.10 for Murang'a SEAL, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Murang'a SEAL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kariobangi Sharks home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Murang'a SEAL to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 34% / 30% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Kariobangi Sharks and 1.10 for Murang'a SEAL, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Kariobangi Sharks win34%

Draw30%

Murang'a SEAL win37%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–113.5%
0–112.8%
1–012.2%
0–011.6%
1–27.4%

Recent form

Kariobangi Sharks

2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mombasa Elite · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mombasa Elite · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sofapaka · 6-0 (W)
2026-05-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kenya Police · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Homeboyz · 2-2 (D)

Murang'a SEAL

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Posta Rangers FC · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mara Sugar · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidco United · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-17T13:15:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	GOR Mahia	3	3	0	0	4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	1	2	0	1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	1	1	0	1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	1	1	0	1	4
5	Shabana	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	KCB	3	1	1	1	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	1	0	1	2	3
8	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	1	0	2	-4	3
10	3K	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Migori Youth	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Bandari	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Mathare United	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Ulinzi Stars	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Kenya Police	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.