Athlitikó Kéntro Litochórou · Analysis updated 11:45 UTC
Karitsa vs Atromitos Palamas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Karitsa and 0.73 for Atromitos Palamas, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Karitsa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Karitsa win
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karitsa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karitsa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Karitsa and 0.73 for Atromitos Palamas, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.6%
Recent form
Karitsa
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Anthoupoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Digenis Neochori · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarakinos · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aetos Makrychoriou · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Anagennisi Karditsas · 1-3 (L)
Atromitos Palamas
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makedonikos Siatista | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Veria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Anagennisi Artas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Eordaikos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Alexandros Florinas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Doxa Mascholouriou | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Kastoria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Naousa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | PAS Giannina | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Thyella Katsikas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | Vatolakkos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Karitsa win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.