· Analysis updated 06:42 UTC
Karitsa vs Digenis Neochori Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Karitsa and 0.86 for Digenis Neochori, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Karitsa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Karitsa win
60.3% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karitsa home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Digenis Neochori away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karitsa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Karitsa and 0.86 for Digenis Neochori, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Karitsa
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarakinos · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aetos Makrychoriou · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Anagennisi Karditsas · 1-3 (L)
- 2021-05-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 2-0 (W)
- 2021-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fikis · 1-0 (W)
Digenis Neochori
- 2023-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 2-2 (D)
- 2023-04-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Petriti · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chalkis · 1-0 (W)
- 2023-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zakynthos · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panelefsiniakos · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trikala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Anthoupoli | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Ermis Exochi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Elassona | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Pierikos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Karitsa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sarakinos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Feraios | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 10 | Iraklis Larissa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Digenis Neochori | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Karitsa win, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.