· Analysis updated 14:07 UTC
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Barycz Sułów Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra and 1.30 for Barycz Sułów, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Karkonosze Jelenia Góra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barycz Sułów away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karkonosze Jelenia Góra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra and 1.30 for Barycz Sułów, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 54.1% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 43.5% | 44.2% | 2.26 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.05 | 44.1% | 44.8% | 2.23 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 30.7% | 31.3% | 3.19 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 75.3% | 75.5% | 1.32 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.62 | 55.9% | 55.2% | 1.81 | -0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.45 | 25.8% | 24.5% | 4.08 | -1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.28 | 70.6% | 68.7% | 1.46 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 4-2 (W)
Barycz Sułów
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Polkowice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3-0 Barycz Sułów (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.