BBBank Wildpark · Referee Timo Gansloweit, Germany · Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.59 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives 1. FC Nürnberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karlsruher SC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Nürnberg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.10 (model 42.1% vs market 30.0%, edge +12.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.10 | 30.0% | 42.1% | 2.38 | +12.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.6% | 68.7% | 1.46 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.10 | 43.8% | 44.2% | 2.26 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.2% | 24.5% | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.7% | 75.5% | 1.32 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.88 | 32.0% | 31.3% | 3.19 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 56.7% | 55.8% | 1.79 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.33 | 70.0% | 57.9% | 1.73 | -12.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Karlsruher SC
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 2-5 (L)
1. FC Nürnberg
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-13T17:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 1-5 1. FC Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-01-19T12:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 1-2 1. FC Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-08-03T11:00:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 3-2 1. FC Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-04-28T11:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 1-0 FC Nurnberg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-01-13T13:00:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 3-1 1. FC Nürnberg (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-11-26T12:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 4-1 FC Nurnberg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-04-08T11:00:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 1-1 FC Nurnberg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 3-0 FC Nurnberg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-12T12:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 4-1 FC Nurnberg (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.