Karlsruher SC vs Arminia Bielefeld Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.70 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Arminia Bielefeld the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Karlsruher SC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arminia Bielefeld away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Karlsruher SC win37%

Draw23%

Arminia Bielefeld win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–28.5%
2–18.1%
2–26.9%
0–16.1%

Recent form

Karlsruher SC

2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 2-5 (L)

Arminia Bielefeld

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FC St. Pauli · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
2026-04-10T16:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 4-1 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
2025-11-08T12:00:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 0-4 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
2023-04-16T11:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 4-2 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
2022-10-07T16:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
2020-06-21T13:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 3-3 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
2019-12-06T17:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 2-2 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
2017-01-29T12:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 3-2 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
2016-08-07T13:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
2016-05-15T13:30:00.000Z · Karlsruher SC 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	5	1	0	10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	FC St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	0	7
9	VfL Bochum	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	VfL Osnabrück	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Karlsruher SC	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	1	1	4	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.