Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 2.07 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Energie Cottbus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Energie Cottbus win

46.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 2.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Karlsruher SC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Energie Cottbus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Energie Cottbus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Karlsruher SC and 2.07 for Energie Cottbus, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Karlsruher SC win32%

Draw21%

Energie Cottbus win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.4%
1–18.1%
2–27.1%
2–16.9%
1–35.8%

Recent form

Karlsruher SC

2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 2-5 (L)

Energie Cottbus

2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC St. Pauli · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 4-4 (D)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	5	1	0	10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	FC St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	0	7
9	VfL Bochum	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	VfL Osnabrück	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Karlsruher SC	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	1	1	4	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Energie Cottbus win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.