Karlsruher SC vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 2.17 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives VfL Wolfsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

VfL Wolfsburg win

57.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 2.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Karlsruher SC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Wolfsburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 22% / 20% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Karlsruher SC and 2.17 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Karlsruher SC win22%

Draw20%

VfL Wolfsburg win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–29.5%
1–18.8%
0–27.3%
1–36.9%
0–16.8%

Recent form

Karlsruher SC

2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 2-5 (L)

VfL Wolfsburg

2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 4-4 (D)
2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 4-4 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	5	1	0	10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	FC St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	0	7
9	VfL Bochum	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	VfL Osnabrück	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Karlsruher SC	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	1	1	4	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is VfL Wolfsburg win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.