Karmiotissa vs Ayia Napa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Karmiotissa and 1.00 for Ayia Napa, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Karmiotissa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Karmiotissa win

57.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Karmiotissa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ayia Napa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Karmiotissa win58%

Draw22%

Ayia Napa win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–010.6%
1–110.6%
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
3–06.2%

Recent form

Karmiotissa

2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pafos · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Aradippou · 4-3 (W)

Ayia Napa

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis Yerolakkou · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ASIL Lysi · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Doxa · 3-0 (W)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PAEEK · 6-3 (W)
2026-04-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nea Salamis · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-18T13:30:00.000Z · Karmiotissa 3-0 Ayia Napa (2. Division)
2026-01-31T12:30:00.000Z · Karmiotissa 2-0 Ayia Napa (2. Division)
2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · Karmiotissa 0-0 Ayia Napa (2. Division)
2024-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · Karmiotissa 2-3 Ayia Napa (Cup)
2022-03-12T13:30:00.000Z · Karmiotissa 2-1 Ayia Napa (2. Division)
2021-11-20T12:30:00.000Z · Karmiotissa 1-0 Ayia Napa (2. Division)
2020-02-15T13:00:00.000Z · Karmiotissa 1-2 Ayia Napa (2. Division)
2020-01-15T12:30:00.000Z · Karmiotissa 2-1 Ayia Napa (2. Division)
2019-11-02T12:30:00.000Z · Karmiotissa 2-0 Ayia Napa (2. Division)

2. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ethnikos Achna	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	Enosis	2	1	1	0	3	4
3	ASIL Lysi	2	1	1	0	2	4
4	Iraklis Yerolakkou	2	1	1	0	2	4
5	Doxa	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	APEA	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	PAEEK	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Polemidion	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Spartakos Kitiou	2	1	0	1	2	3
10	Ermis	2	1	0	1	1	3
11	Digenis Morphou	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	MEAP Nisou	2	0	1	1	-3	1
13	Ayia Napa	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Akritas	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Halkanoras	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Anagennisi Deryneia	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Karmiotissa win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.