Stelios Kyriakides Stadium · Referee Antonis Konstantinidis · Analysis updated 11:52 UTC
Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Karmiotissa and 2.38 for Omonia Nicosia, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Omonia Nicosia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Omonia Nicosia win
74.7% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karmiotissa home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Omonia Nicosia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 9% / 16% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Karmiotissa and 2.38 for Omonia Nicosia, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–310.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
Karmiotissa
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Krasava Ypsonas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-2 (D)
Omonia Nicosia
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasava Ypsonas · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Apollon Limassol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Aris | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Aradippou | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Krasava Ypsonas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Omonia Nicosia win, at 74.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.