· Analysis updated 12:20 UTC
Karpaty Lviv U19 vs Rukh Vynnyky U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Karpaty Lviv U19 and 2.50 for Rukh Vynnyky U19, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Rukh Vynnyky U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rukh Vynnyky U19 win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rukh Vynnyky U19 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rukh Vynnyky U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 18% / 18% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Karpaty Lviv U19 and 2.50 for Rukh Vynnyky U19, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–37.6%
- 1–17.3%
- 0–27.1%
- 0–35.9%
Recent form
Karpaty Lviv U19
Rukh Vynnyky U19
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lviv U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Obolon' Kyiv U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Veres Rivne U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty Lviv U19 · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · Karpaty Lviv U19 1-4 Rukh Vynnyky U19 (U19 League)
- 2026-04-24T09:00:00.000Z · Karpaty Lviv U19 5-2 Rukh Vynnyky U19 (U19 League)
- 2025-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · Karpaty Lviv U19 1-2 Rukh Vynnyky U19 (U19 League)
- 2025-04-18T10:00:00.000Z · Karpaty Lviv U19 0-0 Rukh Vynnyky U19 (U19 League)
- 2024-10-20T09:00:00.000Z · Karpaty Lviv U19 2-2 Rukh Vynnyky U19 (U19 League)
U19 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rukh Vynnyky U19 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 21 |
| 2 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Karpaty Lviv U19 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Livyi Bereh U19 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | LNZ Cherkasy U19 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Zhytomyr U19 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Shakhtar Donetsk U19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Oleksandria U19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Veres Rivne U19 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Obolon' Kyiv U19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | SK Metalurh U19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | Metalist 1925 U19 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 13 | Lviv U19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Kolos Kovalivka U19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rukh Vynnyky U19 win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.