Karpaty vs Bukovyna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Karpaty and 0.65 for Bukovyna, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Karpaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Karpaty win

61.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Karpaty home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bukovyna away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Karpaty win61%

Draw24%

Bukovyna win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.6%
2–013.5%
1–110.9%
0–010.2%
2–18.8%

Recent form

Karpaty

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Veres Rivne · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-0 (W)

Bukovyna

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polessya · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 3-0 Bukovyna (Premier League)
2025-09-18T12:30:00.000Z · Karpaty 0-1 Bukovyna (Cup)
2024-07-14T13:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 2-3 Bukovyna (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · Karpaty 1-0 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
2023-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 2-1 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
2022-10-30T11:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 2-1 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
2022-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 4-0 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
2021-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · Karpaty 2-1 Bukovyna (Druha Liga - Group A)
2021-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 0-1 Bukovyna (Druha Liga - Group A)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	7	0	1	14	21
2	Polessya	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Dynamo Kyiv	7	5	1	1	5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	5	0	2	9	15
5	Karpaty	8	4	2	2	9	14
6	Zorya Luhansk	8	3	2	3	-2	11
7	LNZ Cherkasy	8	3	2	3	-2	11
8	Veres Rivne	9	2	3	4	-5	9
9	Kolos Kovalivka	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Bukovyna	8	1	5	2	-2	8
11	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Livyi Bereh	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	1	4	3	-8	7
14	Chornomorets	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	Kryvbas KR	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Kudrivka	8	0	2	6	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Karpaty win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.