Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Karpaty and 1.08 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Karpaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Karpaty win

61.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Karpaty home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zorya Luhansk away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Karpaty win62%

Draw20%

Zorya Luhansk win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–19.9%
2–09.2%
1–19.2%
1–08.5%
3–17.1%

Recent form

Karpaty

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Veres Rivne · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-0 (W)

Zorya Luhansk

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bukovyna · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Yarud Mariupol' · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 1-2 Zorya Luhansk (Premier League)
2025-12-05T16:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 0-1 Zorya Luhansk (Premier League)
2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 1-3 Zorya Luhansk (Premier League)
2024-12-02T16:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 1-2 Zorya Luhansk (Premier League)
2019-11-30T12:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 0-2 Zorya Luhansk (Premier League)
2019-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 0-1 Zorya Luhansk (Premier League)
2018-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 1-2 Zorya Luhansk (Premier League)
2018-08-12T14:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 0-1 Zorya Luhansk (Premier League)
2018-02-18T12:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 0-2 Zorya Luhansk (Premier League)
2017-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · Karpaty 0-0 Zorya Luhansk (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	9	8	0	1	15	24
2	Polessya	9	7	1	1	12	22
3	FC Kharkiv	8	6	0	2	10	18
4	Dynamo Kyiv	8	5	1	2	3	16
5	Karpaty	9	4	3	2	9	15
6	LNZ Cherkasy	9	4	2	3	1	14
7	Zorya Luhansk	9	4	2	3	-1	14
8	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	9	2	3	4	-3	9
9	Veres Rivne	9	2	3	4	-5	9
10	Kolos Kovalivka	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Bukovyna	9	1	5	3	-5	8
12	Livyi Bereh	8	1	4	3	-2	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	1	4	3	-8	7
14	Chornomorets	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Kudrivka	9	1	2	6	-11	5
16	Kryvbas KR	7	1	2	4	-6	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Karpaty win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.