Karviná II vs Frýdek-Místek Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Karviná II and 1.38 for Frýdek-Místek, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Karviná II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Karviná II win

47.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Karviná II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frýdek-Místek away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Karviná II win47%

Draw23%

Frýdek-Místek win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.5%
2–19.3%
1–07.6%
1–27.2%
2–06.8%

Recent form

Karviná II

2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Líšeň II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Blansko · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hodonín · 1-0 (W)

Frýdek-Místek

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vrchovina · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Polanka nad Odrou · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Havířov · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uherský Brod · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Uničov · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · Karviná II 0-3 Frýdek-Místek (3. liga - MSFL)
2026-03-14T09:15:00.000Z · Karviná II 0-1 Frýdek-Místek (3. liga - MSFL)
2025-08-10T08:15:00.000Z · Karviná II 0-3 Frýdek-Místek (3. liga - MSFL)
2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Karviná II 0-2 Frýdek-Místek (3. liga - MSFL)
2024-09-22T08:15:00.000Z · Karviná II 0-1 Frýdek-Místek (3. liga - MSFL)
2024-03-29T14:30:00.000Z · Karviná II 2-1 Frýdek-Místek (3. liga - MSFL)
2023-08-27T08:15:00.000Z · Karviná II 2-2 Frýdek-Místek (3. liga - MSFL)
2022-01-25T00:00:00.000Z · Karviná II 0-5 Frýdek-Místek (Friendlies Clubs)

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Líšeň II	13	8	5	0	17	29
2	Uničov	13	9	2	2	13	29
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	13	8	3	2	10	27
4	Frýdek-Místek	13	7	3	3	7	24
5	Hranice	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	13	7	1	5	6	22
7	Slovácko II	13	5	3	5	6	18
8	Unie Hlubina	13	5	3	5	2	18
9	Uherský Brod	13	5	3	5	0	18
10	Hodonín	13	5	2	6	3	17
11	Vítkovice	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Zlín II	13	4	3	6	-6	15
13	Karviná II	13	4	2	7	-4	14
14	Vrchovina	13	4	2	7	-15	14
15	Havířov	13	2	5	6	-9	11
16	Blansko	13	2	5	6	-11	11
17	Vsetín	13	3	1	9	-16	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	13	2	3	8	-8	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Karviná II win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.