Stadion Kovona · Analysis updated 19:35 UTC
Karviná II vs Líšeň II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Karviná II and 2.05 for Líšeň II, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Líšeň II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Líšeň II win
68.3% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karviná II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Líšeň II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Líšeň II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 12% / 20% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Karviná II and 2.05 for Líšeň II, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.1%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–39.0%
Recent form
Karviná II
- 2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Líšeň II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Blansko · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hodonín · 1-0 (W)
Líšeň II
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hranice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Karviná II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vítkovice · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - MSFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uničov | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Líšeň II | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 29 |
| 3 | Frýdek-Místek | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 27 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc II | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 25 |
| 6 | Hranice | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 7 | Uherský Brod | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Vítkovice | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 9 | Slovácko II | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 10 | Unie Hlubina | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Zlín II | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | Hodonín | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 17 |
| 13 | Karviná II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 17 |
| 14 | Vrchovina | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 17 |
| 15 | Havířov | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Blansko | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 11 |
| 17 | Vsetín | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -18 | 10 |
| 18 | Polanka nad Odrou | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Líšeň II win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.