Stadion Kovona · Analysis updated 13:45 UTC
Karviná II vs Vsetín Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Karviná II and 1.28 for Vsetín, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Karviná II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Karviná II win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karviná II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vsetín away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karviná II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Karviná II and 1.28 for Vsetín, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–07.2%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Karviná II
- 2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Líšeň II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Blansko · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hodonín · 1-0 (W)
Vsetín
- 2026-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hodonín · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vrchovina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Polanka nad Odrou · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Havířov · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - MSFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Líšeň II | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 25 |
| 2 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Uničov | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Frýdek-Místek | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Hranice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Vítkovice | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Unie Hlubina | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Slovácko II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Uherský Brod | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Zlín II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Hodonín | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Vrchovina | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | Karviná II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | Vsetín | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 10 |
| 16 | Blansko | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 17 | Polanka nad Odrou | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Havířov | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Karviná II win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.