Karviná vs Dukla Praha Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Karviná and 1.48 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Karviná the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Karviná win

50.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Karviná home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dukla Praha away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Karviná win50%

Draw22%

Dukla Praha win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.1%
1–19.0%
2–26.7%
1–26.7%
2–06.2%

Recent form

Karviná

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hanácká · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Třinec · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kladno · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Příbram · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozlovice · 1-1 (D)

Dukla Praha

2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava II · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Prostějov · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vlašim · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Opava · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · Karviná 2-1 Dukla Praha (Czech Liga)
2025-07-19T15:00:00.000Z · Karviná 2-0 Dukla Praha (Czech Liga)
2025-03-12T17:00:00.000Z · Karviná 0-0 Dukla Praha (Czech Liga)
2024-09-01T12:30:00.000Z · Karviná 0-0 Dukla Praha (Czech Liga)
2023-05-13T12:00:00.000Z · Karviná 3-0 Dukla Praha (FNL)
2022-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · Karviná 5-0 Dukla Praha (FNL)
2019-05-14T15:30:00.000Z · Karviná 3-0 Dukla Praha (Czech Liga)
2019-03-15T17:00:00.000Z · Karviná 1-2 Dukla Praha (Czech Liga)
2018-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · Karviná 0-2 Dukla Praha (Czech Liga)

FNL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Karviná	12	9	0	3	13	27
2	Vysočina Jihlava	12	7	2	3	9	23
3	Dukla Praha	12	6	3	3	3	21
4	Ústí nad Labem	12	5	4	3	4	19
5	Vlašim	12	5	3	4	4	18
6	Příbram	12	4	6	2	2	18
7	Slavia Praha II	12	4	4	4	5	16
8	Baník Ostrava II	12	4	3	5	3	15
9	Táborsko	12	3	6	3	0	15
10	Kladno	12	3	5	4	-1	14
11	Opava	12	3	5	4	-3	14
12	Viktoria Žižkov	12	4	2	6	-8	14
13	Arsenal Česká Lípa	12	3	4	5	-6	13
14	Třinec	12	2	5	5	-7	11
15	Prostějov	12	1	7	4	-5	10
16	Hanácká	12	2	3	7	-13	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Karviná win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.