Karviná vs Kladno Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Karviná and 1.15 for Kladno, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Karviná the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Karviná win

53.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Karviná home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kladno away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karviná to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Karviná and 1.15 for Kladno, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Karviná win54%

Draw23%

Kladno win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.6%
2–19.8%
1–09.2%
2–08.5%
1–26.1%

Recent form

Karviná

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hanácká · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Třinec · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kladno · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Příbram · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozlovice · 1-1 (D)

Kladno

2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Příbram · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Táborsko · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karviná · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FNL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Karviná	11	8	0	3	11	24
2	Vysočina Jihlava	11	6	2	3	7	20
3	Dukla Praha	11	6	2	3	3	20
4	Ústí nad Labem	11	5	4	2	6	19
5	Vlašim	11	5	3	3	6	18
6	Příbram	11	4	5	2	2	17
7	Baník Ostrava II	11	4	2	5	3	14
8	Táborsko	11	3	5	3	0	14
9	Viktoria Žižkov	11	4	2	5	-7	14
10	Slavia Praha II	11	3	4	4	1	13
11	Kladno	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Opava	11	3	4	4	-3	13
13	Arsenal Česká Lípa	11	3	3	5	-6	12
14	Prostějov	11	1	7	3	-1	10
15	Třinec	11	2	4	5	-7	10
16	Hanácká	11	1	3	7	-14	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Karviná win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.