· Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.77 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Kasımpaşa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kasımpaşa win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kasımpaşa home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Samsunspor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.7%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Kasımpaşa
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amed · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 1-1 (D)
Samsunspor
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzurumspor FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Kasımpaşa 3-0 Samsunspor (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-01-30T17:00:00.000Z · Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · Kasımpaşa 0-0 Samsunspor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · Kasımpaşa 2-0 Samsunspor (Süper Lig)
- 2024-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · Kasımpaşa 1-4 Samsunspor (Süper Lig)
- 2024-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · Kasımpaşa 1-0 Samsunspor (Süper Lig)
- 2023-12-09T13:00:00.000Z · Kasımpaşa 2-4 Samsunspor (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kasımpaşa win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.