Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium · Referee Gurcan Hasova, Türkiye · Analysis updated 06:25 UTC
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.54 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Trabzonspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trabzonspor win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kasımpaşa home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trabzonspor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trabzonspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.54 for Trabzonspor, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
Kasımpaşa
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amed · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 1-1 (D)
Trabzonspor
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Samsunspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Amed | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -20 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trabzonspor win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.