Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Kashima and 0.83 for Cerezo Osaka, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Kashima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Kashima win

66.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kashima home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cerezo Osaka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kashima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Kashima and 0.83 for Cerezo Osaka, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kashima win67%

Draw20%

Cerezo Osaka win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

2–011.8%
1–011.3%
2–19.8%
1–19.3%
3–08.3%

Recent form

Kashima

2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventforet Kofu · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle Jets · 7-1 (W)

Cerezo Osaka

2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Kagoshima United · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs V-varen Nagasaki · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	7	3	1	13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	7	23
6	Kashima	12	6	2	4	4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	5	4	2	6	19
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	4	18
9	Urawa	11	6	0	5	-3	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	5	1	5	-1	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	3	4	4	-7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	2	3	6	-4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	1	3	7	-12	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kashima win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.