Mercari Stadium · Referee Florian Exner, Germany · Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Kashima vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Kashima and 1.30 for Nagoya Grampus, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Kashima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kashima win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kashima home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nagoya Grampus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–16.8%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Kashima
- 2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventforet Kofu · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle Jets · 7-1 (W)
Nagoya Grampus
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashiwa Reysol · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T09:00:00.000Z · Kashima 2-1 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
- 2025-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · Kashima 4-0 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
- 2025-04-25T10:00:00.000Z · Kashima 1-0 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
- 2024-11-09T05:00:00.000Z · Kashima 0-0 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
- 2024-02-23T09:00:00.000Z · Kashima 3-0 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
- 2023-09-10T09:00:00.000Z · Kashima 1-2 Nagoya Grampus (J-League Cup)
- 2023-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · Kashima 1-1 Nagoya Grampus (J-League Cup)
- 2023-08-13T09:00:00.000Z · Kashima 0-1 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
- 2023-05-14T04:30:00.000Z · Kashima 2-0 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
- 2022-06-26T09:00:00.000Z · Kashima 1-1 Nagoya Grampus (J1 League)
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kawasaki Frontale | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Urawa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kashima win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.