Kashima vs Pohang Steelers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.96 expected goals for Kashima and 0.91 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Kashima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Kashima win

78.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.96 – 0.91

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kashima home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pohang Steelers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kashima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.96 goals for Kashima and 0.91 for Pohang Steelers, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kashima win79%

Draw13%

Pohang Steelers win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

21%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.1%
3–09.0%
2–18.3%
3–18.2%
4–06.6%

Recent form

Kashima

2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventforet Kofu · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle Jets · 7-1 (W)

Pohang Steelers

2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Seoul · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Beijing Guoan · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Citizen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

AFC Champions League Elite table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ain	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Neftchi	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2	0	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	0	2	-4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	0	0	2	-5	0
1	Kashima	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	2	0	0	5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Buriram United	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	0	0	2	-3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	0	0	2	-4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	0	0	2	-4	0
15	Port FC	2	0	0	2	-5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kashima win, at 78.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.