Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium · Referee Hiroyuki Kimura, Japan · Analysis updated 22:17 UTC
Kashiwa Reysol vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.27 for V-varen Nagasaki, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Kashiwa Reysol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kashiwa Reysol win
59.2% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kashiwa Reysol home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
V-varen Nagasaki away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kashiwa Reysol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.27 for V-varen Nagasaki, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–07.5%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Kashiwa Reysol
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyoto Sanga · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 0-2 (L)
V-varen Nagasaki
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kawasaki Frontale | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Urawa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kashiwa Reysol win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.