· Analysis updated 06:00 UTC
Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Tobol 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Kaspij Aktau 2 and 1.10 for Tobol 2, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Kaspij Aktau 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kaspij Aktau 2 win
61.8% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kaspij Aktau 2 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tobol 2 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kaspij Aktau 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Kaspij Aktau 2 and 1.10 for Tobol 2, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.9%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Kaspij Aktau 2
- 2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademiya Ontustik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaiyq · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey 2 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhter Karagandy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe Jas · 6-1 (W)
Tobol 2
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ekibastuz · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Academy Kairat · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Taraz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Khan Tengri · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-25T13:00:00.000Z · Kaspij Aktau 2 2-1 Tobol 2 (1. Division)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 56 | 62 |
| 2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 54 | 56 |
| 3 | Turan Turkistan | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 50 |
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 43 |
| 5 | Astana II | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Jaiyq | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 31 |
| 7 | Taraz | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -2 | 30 |
| 8 | Ekibastuz | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | -22 | 26 |
| 9 | Kaspij Aktau 2 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 10 | Khan Tengri | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -15 | 25 |
| 11 | Arys | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 24 |
| 12 | Aktobe Jas | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -31 | 23 |
| 13 | Tobol 2 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | -17 | 16 |
| 14 | Yelimay Semey 2 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 17 | -30 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kaspij Aktau 2 win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.