Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Kaspiy and 1.41 for FK Tobol Kostanay, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives FK Tobol Kostanay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kaspiy home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Tobol Kostanay away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Tobol Kostanay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Kaspiy and 1.41 for FK Tobol Kostanay, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kaspiy win35%

Draw26%

FK Tobol Kostanay win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–19.4%
1–08.7%
1–28.6%
2–17.9%

Recent form

Kaspiy

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kairat Almaty · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 1-0 (W)

FK Tobol Kostanay

2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaspiy · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaisar · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	29	21	5	3	38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	29	19	7	3	37	64
3	FC Astana	29	15	8	6	17	53
4	Okzhetpes	29	15	6	8	8	51
5	Aktobe	29	13	7	9	7	46
6	Yelimay Semey	29	12	9	8	2	45
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	1	41
8	Ulytau	29	9	8	12	-8	35
9	Zhenys	29	8	9	12	-9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	9	6	14	-11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	8	6	15	-12	30
12	Irtysh	29	7	8	14	-15	29
13	Altay	29	6	9	14	-11	27
14	Atyrau	29	5	12	12	-11	27
15	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	-18	26
16	Kaisar	29	4	13	12	-15	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.