Kassel vs Fernwald Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Kassel and 1.56 for Fernwald, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Fernwald the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fernwald win

46.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kassel home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fernwald away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fernwald to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Kassel and 1.56 for Fernwald, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kassel win29%

Draw25%

Fernwald win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.9%
0–110.2%
1–29.3%
0–28.0%
1–07.6%

Recent form

Kassel

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vfb Marburg · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs 1960 Hanau · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kassel 2 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hünfelder SV · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Baunatal · 0-2 (L)

Fernwald

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hummetroth · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eddersheim · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gießen · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs TuBa Pohlheim · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Hessen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	15	10	3	2	30	33
2	Unter-Flockenbach	15	10	2	3	15	32
3	Friedberg	15	8	3	4	10	27
4	Hadamar	15	8	3	4	8	27
5	Eddersheim	15	7	4	4	2	25
6	Darmstadt 98 II	15	7	3	5	16	24
7	TuBa Pohlheim	14	7	2	5	0	23
8	Fernwald	15	4	9	2	4	21
9	Vfb Marburg	15	6	3	6	-2	21
10	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	15	6	2	7	-7	20
11	Hünfelder SV	14	6	1	7	-1	19
12	Kassel	14	5	3	6	-10	18
13	Bayern Alzenau	15	4	5	6	-3	17
14	Baunatal	15	4	4	7	-7	16
15	1960 Hanau	15	3	4	8	-14	13
16	Hummetroth	14	3	3	8	-8	12
17	Kassel 2	15	3	3	9	-12	12
18	FC Gießen	15	2	3	10	-21	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fernwald win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.