Kassel vs Friedberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Kassel and 1.94 for Friedberg, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Friedberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Friedberg win

53.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kassel home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Friedberg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Friedberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 24% / 22% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Kassel and 1.94 for Friedberg, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kassel win24%

Draw22%

Friedberg win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–29.7%
0–18.0%
0–27.8%
1–36.3%

Recent form

Kassel

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vfb Marburg · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs 1960 Hanau · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kassel 2 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hünfelder SV · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Baunatal · 0-2 (L)

Friedberg

2026-09-05T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Darmstadt 98 II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Baunatal · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hadamar · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kassel · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Eddersheim · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Hessen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	15	10	3	2	30	33
2	Unter-Flockenbach	15	10	2	3	15	32
3	Friedberg	15	8	3	4	10	27
4	Hadamar	15	8	3	4	8	27
5	Eddersheim	15	7	4	4	2	25
6	Darmstadt 98 II	15	7	3	5	16	24
7	TuBa Pohlheim	14	7	2	5	0	23
8	Fernwald	15	4	9	2	4	21
9	Vfb Marburg	15	6	3	6	-2	21
10	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	15	6	2	7	-7	20
11	Hünfelder SV	14	6	1	7	-1	19
12	Kassel	14	5	3	6	-10	18
13	Bayern Alzenau	15	4	5	6	-3	17
14	Baunatal	15	4	4	7	-7	16
15	1960 Hanau	15	3	4	8	-14	13
16	Hummetroth	14	3	3	8	-8	12
17	Kassel 2	15	3	3	9	-12	12
18	FC Gießen	15	2	3	10	-21	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Friedberg win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.