· Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Kastrioti Krujë vs Flamurtari Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Kastrioti Krujë and 1.30 for Flamurtari, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Flamurtari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kastrioti Krujë home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Flamurtari away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–28.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Double chance — Home/Draw at 1.91 (model 55.4% vs market 48.9%, edge +6.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/DrawValue | 1.91 | 48.9% | 55.4% | 1.81 | +6.5 |
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 55.4% | 1.81 | +5.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.9% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 44.6% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.25 | 27.5% | 27.2% | 3.68 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -2.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 76.5% | 72.8% | 1.37 | -3.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -5.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kastrioti Krujë
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Luzi 2008 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 1-1 (D)
Flamurtari
- 2026-10-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Gramshi · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogradeci · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Besa Kavajë · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · Kastrioti Krujë 1-0 Flamurtari (1st Division)
- 2025-03-09T13:00:00.000Z · Kastrioti Krujë 1-2 Flamurtari (1st Division)
- 2025-01-26T12:30:00.000Z · Kastrioti Krujë 0-3 Flamurtari (1st Division)
- 2024-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · Kastrioti Krujë 0-1 Flamurtari (1st Division)
- 2024-03-09T13:00:00.000Z · Kastrioti Krujë 0-2 Flamurtari (1st Division)
- 2023-12-02T12:30:00.000Z · Kastrioti Krujë 0-1 Flamurtari (1st Division)
- 2023-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · Kastrioti Krujë 0-0 Flamurtari (1st Division)
- 2021-11-17T12:30:00.000Z · Kastrioti Krujë 2-4 Flamurtari (Cup)
- 2021-11-03T13:00:00.000Z · Kastrioti Krujë 0-0 Flamurtari (Cup)
- 2019-05-12T14:30:00.000Z · Kastrioti Krujë 2-0 Flamurtari (Superliga)
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.