· Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Kastrioti Krujë vs Korabi Peshkopi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Kastrioti Krujë and 0.85 for Korabi Peshkopi, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Kastrioti Krujë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kastrioti Krujë win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kastrioti Krujë home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Korabi Peshkopi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kastrioti Krujë to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Kastrioti Krujë and 0.85 for Korabi Peshkopi, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–010.1%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
Kastrioti Krujë
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Luzi 2008 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 1-1 (D)
Korabi Peshkopi
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kastrioti Krujë win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.