BCS Sports complex Bukedea · Analysis updated 16:57 UTC
Kataka vs BUL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.66 expected goals for Kataka and 2.35 for BUL, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives BUL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BUL win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
0.66 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kataka home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
BUL away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BUL to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 9% / 16% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.66 goals for Kataka and 2.35 for BUL, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.6%
- 0–111.6%
- 0–310.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
Kataka
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Villa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs KCCA · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BUL · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UPDF · 0-0 (D)
BUL
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Blacks Power · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ntugasaze · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataka · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Express · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Entebbe UPPC · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Villa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 2 | NEC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | BUL | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Vipers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Blacks Power | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | UPDF | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Maroons | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Lugazi | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Police | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | Mbarara City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Express | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BUL win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.