Toyama Stadium · Referee T. Yoshida · Analysis updated 09:02 UTC
Kataller Toyama vs Imabari Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.57 expected goals for Kataller Toyama and 0.87 for Imabari, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Kataller Toyama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kataller Toyama win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
2.57 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kataller Toyama home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Imabari away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kataller Toyama to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.57 goals for Kataller Toyama and 0.87 for Imabari, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–09.0%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
Recent form
Kataller Toyama
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Consadole Sapporo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Omiya Ardija · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Shonan Bellmare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventforet Kofu · 2-1 (W)
Imabari
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Blaublitz Akita · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vegalta Sendai · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokushima Vortis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Tochigi City · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Shonan Bellmare | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Oita Trinita | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Sagan Tosu | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Consadole Sapporo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Jubilo Iwata | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kataller Toyama win, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.