Kattaqurgon vs Qiziriq Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Kattaqurgon and 0.47 for Qiziriq, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Kattaqurgon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Kattaqurgon win

81.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 0.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kattaqurgon home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Qiziriq away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kattaqurgon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 13% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Kattaqurgon and 0.47 for Qiziriq, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kattaqurgon win82%

Draw13%

Qiziriq win5%

Double chance 1X

95%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

18%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

2–016.1%
3–013.4%
1–012.9%
4–08.3%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Kattaqurgon

2026-10-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalourg · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BuxDu · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Respublika FA · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Aral · 0-1 (L)

Qiziriq

2026-10-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Respublika FA · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aral · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gazalkent · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shortan · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jayxun · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Pro League A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aral	23	18	4	1	35	58
2	Metalourg	23	14	5	4	34	47
3	Shortan	23	14	4	5	17	46
4	Gazalkent	23	12	5	6	16	41
5	Kattaqurgon	23	12	4	7	8	40
6	FarDu	23	11	7	5	6	40
7	Olimpik-Mobiuz	23	11	6	6	18	39
8	Lochin	23	11	6	6	8	39
9	Respublika FA	23	8	5	10	-2	29
10	Yaypan	24	7	4	13	-17	25
11	Jayxun	23	7	3	13	-8	24
12	Pakhtakor II	23	4	1	18	-33	13
13	BuxDu	23	4	1	18	-34	13
14	Qiziriq	24	1	1	22	-48	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kattaqurgon win, at 81.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.