Katwijk vs Almere City II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Katwijk and 1.18 for Almere City II, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Katwijk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Katwijk home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almere City II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Katwijk win40%

Draw27%

Almere City II win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–010.9%
0–19.6%
2–18.5%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Katwijk

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs De Treffers · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Almere City II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs TOGB · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Barendrecht · 2-0 (W)

Almere City II

2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z · A vs AFC Amsterdam · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs De Treffers · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barendrecht · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · Katwijk 3-2 Almere City II (Tweede Divisie)
2026-03-21T14:30:00.000Z · Katwijk 3-0 Almere City II (Tweede Divisie)
2025-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · Katwijk 0-3 Almere City II (Tweede Divisie)
2025-04-05T13:30:00.000Z · Katwijk 0-4 Almere City II (Tweede Divisie)
2024-10-26T13:45:00.000Z · Katwijk 2-1 Almere City II (Tweede Divisie)
2024-01-20T14:30:00.000Z · Katwijk 1-3 Almere City II (Tweede Divisie)
2023-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · Katwijk 1-0 Almere City II (Tweede Divisie)
2019-03-30T14:30:00.000Z · Katwijk 1-1 Almere City II (Tweede Divisie)
2018-12-08T14:30:00.000Z · Katwijk 1-0 Almere City II (Tweede Divisie)

Tweede Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Quick Boys	11	9	1	1	24	28
2	De Treffers	11	6	4	1	16	22
3	Ijsselmeervogels	11	7	1	3	6	22
4	Kozakken Boys	11	6	3	2	12	21
5	HHC	11	6	3	2	5	21
6	Barendrecht	11	6	2	3	3	20
7	GVVV Veenendaal	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	RKAV Volendam	11	5	3	3	1	18
9	Spakenburg	11	4	2	5	-4	14
10	Katwijk	11	4	2	5	-7	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam II	11	3	4	4	4	13
12	Almere City II	11	4	1	6	1	13
13	AFC Amsterdam	11	4	1	6	-4	13
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	11	4	1	6	-10	13
15	Hoek	11	2	4	5	-6	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Kloetinge	11	1	4	6	-13	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	11	0	1	10	-24	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.