Katwijk vs Ijsselmeervogels Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Katwijk and 1.50 for Ijsselmeervogels, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Ijsselmeervogels the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ijsselmeervogels win

47.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Katwijk home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ijsselmeervogels away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ijsselmeervogels to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Katwijk and 1.50 for Ijsselmeervogels, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Katwijk win27%

Draw26%

Ijsselmeervogels win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–111.7%
1–29.2%
0–28.8%
1–08.2%

Recent form

Katwijk

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs De Treffers · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Almere City II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs TOGB · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Barendrecht · 2-0 (W)

Ijsselmeervogels

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs GVVV Veenendaal · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Koninklijke HFC · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs HHC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rijnsburgse Boys · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tweede Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Quick Boys	10	8	1	1	22	25
2	De Treffers	10	6	3	1	16	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	6	3	1	13	21
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	6	1	3	5	19
5	HHC	10	5	3	2	4	18
6	Barendrecht	10	5	2	3	2	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	5	0	5	2	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Spakenburg	10	4	2	4	-3	14
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	4	1	5	-3	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	4	1	5	-9	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	3	3	4	4	12
13	Katwijk	10	3	2	5	-9	11
14	Almere City II	10	3	1	6	0	10
15	Hoek	10	2	4	4	-4	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Kloetinge	10	1	4	5	-11	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	0	1	9	-23	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ijsselmeervogels win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.