Kauno Žalgiris II vs BFA Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Kauno Žalgiris II and 1.20 for BFA, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Kauno Žalgiris II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kauno Žalgiris II win

45.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kauno Žalgiris II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BFA away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Kauno Žalgiris II win45%

Draw25%

BFA win30%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–09.9%
2–19.2%
2–07.7%
0–17.7%

Recent form

Kauno Žalgiris II

2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonava · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Žalgiris II · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Atmosfera · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tauras · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Babrungas · 0-2 (L)

BFA

2026-10-09T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Žalgiris II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Panevėžys · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Atmosfera · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Garliava · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Babrungas · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-06-28T15:30:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris II 0-1 BFA (1 Lyga)
2025-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris II 1-2 BFA (1 Lyga)
2025-03-28T18:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris II 0-2 BFA (1 Lyga)
2024-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris II 2-1 BFA (1 Lyga)
2024-06-29T15:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris II 0-5 BFA (1 Lyga)
2023-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris II 2-0 BFA (1 Lyga)
2023-04-01T15:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris II 0-1 BFA (1 Lyga)
2021-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris II 2-0 BFA (1 Lyga)
2021-03-30T17:15:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris II 2-4 BFA (1 Lyga)
2020-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · Kauno Žalgiris II 2-1 BFA (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minija	27	22	1	4	53	67
2	Babrungas	27	21	4	2	35	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	18	3	6	21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	15	4	9	8	49
5	BFA	28	14	4	10	1	46
6	Dainava	27	12	8	7	12	44
7	Tauras	27	13	5	9	11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	14	2	12	-2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	8	37
10	Jonava	28	8	6	14	-7	30
11	Garliava	28	8	5	15	-3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	8	2	17	-25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	7	2	18	-22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	28	5	3	20	-33	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kauno Žalgiris II win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.