Steponas Darius and Stasys Girenas · Referee Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain · Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
Kauno Žalgiris vs Beşiktaş Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Kauno Žalgiris and 2.15 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Beşiktaş the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beşiktaş win
69.6% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kauno Žalgiris home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Beşiktaş away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beşiktaş to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 12% / 19% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Kauno Žalgiris and 2.15 for Beşiktaş, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.7%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–39.1%
- 1–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.06 | 87.4% | 88.3% | 1.13 | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 45.9% | 46.6% | 2.15 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 8.40 | 11.1% | 11.7% | 8.55 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.42 | 66.4% | 67.0% | 1.49 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.10 | 29.9% | 30.4% | 3.29 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.4% | 1.81 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.34 | 69.6% | 69.6% | 1.44 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.85 | 19.2% | 18.7% | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.80 | 33.6% | 33.0% | 3.03 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.70 | 54.1% | 53.4% | 1.87 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 82.7% | 81.3% | 1.23 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kauno Žalgiris
- 2026-10-11T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Panevėžys · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 5-1 (W)
Beşiktaş
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kocaelispor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Ferencvarosi TC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Sparta Praha | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Rennes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | AC Milan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | OFI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | Lillestrom | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Plzen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat-Armenia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celje | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beşiktaş win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.