Kavala vs Doxa Dramas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Kavala and 1.45 for Doxa Dramas, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Kavala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kavala home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Doxa Dramas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Kavala win43%

Draw24%

Doxa Dramas win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–18.9%
1–27.7%
1–07.4%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Kavala

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eleftheroupolis · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Paralimniou · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Thrakis · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonikos Neapolis · 5-1 (W)

Doxa Dramas

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Doxa Neo Sidirochori · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eleftheroupolis · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Paralimniou · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Poseidon Nea Michaniona · 3-2 (W)
2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis Therm. · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2024-03-24T13:00:00.000Z · Kavala 1-0 Doxa Dramas (Gamma Ethniki - Group 1)
2023-11-19T13:00:00.000Z · Kavala 3-1 Doxa Dramas (Gamma Ethniki - Group 1)
2023-02-19T13:00:00.000Z · Kavala 3-1 Doxa Dramas (Gamma Ethniki - Group 1)
2022-11-20T13:00:00.000Z · Kavala 1-1 Doxa Dramas (Gamma Ethniki - Group 1)
2014-03-02T13:20:00.000Z · Kavala 1-2 Doxa Dramas (Football League)
2013-11-24T13:00:00.000Z · Kavala 0-0 Doxa Dramas (Football League)
2013-04-21T13:00:00.000Z · Kavala 0-2 Doxa Dramas (Football League)
2012-12-16T13:00:00.000Z · Kavala 1-2 Doxa Dramas (Football League)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.