Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu · Referee Futoshi Nakamura, Japan · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Kawasaki Frontale and 1.70 for Kashima, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Kawasaki Frontale the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kawasaki Frontale win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kawasaki Frontale home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kashima away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kawasaki Frontale to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 20% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Kawasaki Frontale and 1.70 for Kashima, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Kawasaki Frontale
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashima · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Mito Hollyhock · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Shimizu S-pulse · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 4-2 (W)
Kashima
- 2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventforet Kofu · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle Jets · 7-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kawasaki Frontale win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.