· Analysis updated 09:01 UTC
Kayanza United vs Muzinga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.57 expected goals for Kayanza United and 1.14 for Muzinga, a combined total of 1.72. That distribution gives Muzinga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Muzinga win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
0.57 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kayanza United home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Muzinga away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muzinga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 19% / 32% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.57 goals for Kayanza United and 1.14 for Muzinga, a combined 1.72 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–120.5%
- 0–017.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–211.7%
- 1–010.3%
Recent form
Kayanza United
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bumamuru · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rukinzo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Royal Vision · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Star · 1-1 (D)
Muzinga
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musongati · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Panthere Noir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Messager Ngozi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Never Give Up Academy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Green Farmers FC · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Le Messager Ngozi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Rukinzo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 5 | Olympic Star | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Aigle Noir | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Ngozi City | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bumamuru | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Musongati | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Flambeau du Centre | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Vital'O | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Never Give Up Academy | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Inter Star | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Kayanza United | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Young Star | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 5 |
| 16 | Panthere Noir | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Muzinga win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.