· Analysis updated 09:49 UTC
Kayserispor vs Pendikspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.87 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Kayserispor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kayserispor win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kayserispor home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pendikspor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kayserispor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Kayserispor and 0.87 for Pendikspor, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.0%
Recent form
Kayserispor
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mardin 1969 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs İstanbulspor · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Esenler Erokspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fatih Karagümrük · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bursaspor · 1-2 (L)
Pendikspor
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanspor FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sivasspor · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodrum FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boluspor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kayserispor win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.