Kayserispor vs Sarıyer Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.92 for Sarıyer, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Kayserispor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Kayserispor win

58.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kayserispor home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarıyer away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kayserispor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Kayserispor and 0.92 for Sarıyer, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kayserispor win58%

Draw23%

Sarıyer win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.8%
1–110.9%
2–010.6%
2–19.8%
0–06.6%

Recent form

Kayserispor

2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mardin 1969 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs İstanbulspor · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Esenler Erokspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fatih Karagümrük · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bursaspor · 1-2 (L)

Sarıyer

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sivasspor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodrum FK · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ümraniyespor · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boluspor · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandırmaspor · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	5	5	1	10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	0	18
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
10	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
12	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	3	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	-3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kayserispor win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.