· Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Kazakhstan W vs Azerbaijan W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Kazakhstan W and 1.64 for Azerbaijan W, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Azerbaijan W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Azerbaijan W win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kazakhstan W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Azerbaijan W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Azerbaijan W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 25% / 25% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Kazakhstan W and 1.64 for Azerbaijan W, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Kazakhstan W
- 2026-10-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Republic of Ireland W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Republic of Ireland W · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-06-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-07T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Belarus W · 0-1 (L)
Azerbaijan W
- 2026-06-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs North Macedonia W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungary W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Andorra W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Andorra W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-07T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hungary W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Azerbaijan W win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.