· Analysis updated 06:56 UTC
Kazma vs Al Arabi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Kazma and 1.58 for Al Arabi, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Kazma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kazma win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kazma home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Arabi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.9%
Recent form
Kazma
- 2026-10-23T14:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Jahra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 3-2 (W)
Al Arabi
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wathba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:05:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Jahra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-09T17:05:00.000Z · Kazma 1-1 Al Arabi (Premier League)
- 2026-06-16T17:45:00.000Z · Kazma 0-2 Al Arabi (Premier League)
- 2026-02-07T16:05:00.000Z · Kazma 1-0 Al Arabi (Premier League)
- 2025-09-27T17:20:00.000Z · Kazma 0-0 Al Arabi (Premier League)
- 2025-01-10T16:50:00.000Z · Kazma 0-3 Al Arabi (Premier League)
- 2024-08-10T16:05:00.000Z · Kazma 0-2 Al Arabi (Premier League)
- 2024-03-08T16:40:00.000Z · Kazma 0-1 Al Arabi (Premier League)
- 2024-02-22T16:45:00.000Z · Kazma 1-1 Al Arabi (Super Cup)
- 2023-12-07T17:10:00.000Z · Kazma 0-4 Al Arabi (Premier League)
- 2023-05-13T17:30:00.000Z · Kazma 2-2 Al Arabi (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Kazma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Nasar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 4 | Al Fahaheel | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kazma win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.