· Analysis updated 10:40 UTC
Kazma vs Al Sahel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Kazma and 0.75 for Al Sahel, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Kazma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kazma win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kazma home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Sahel away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.2%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–09.9%
Recent form
Kazma
- 2026-09-06T17:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-01T15:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Sahel · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Tadhamon · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-29T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Salmiyah · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 0-0 (D)
Al Sahel
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Fahaheel · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Salmiyah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Yarmouk · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-01T15:40:00.000Z · Kazma 0-0 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2023-03-10T16:30:00.000Z · Kazma 2-2 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2022-11-12T14:25:00.000Z · Kazma 1-3 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2021-04-24T19:00:00.000Z · Kazma 1-1 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2021-02-05T13:40:00.000Z · Kazma 1-1 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2020-10-29T16:45:00.000Z · Kazma 1-0 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2020-09-03T15:40:00.000Z · Kazma 4-1 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2020-01-10T14:40:00.000Z · Kazma 3-0 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2017-05-11T14:40:00.000Z · Kazma 3-3 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2017-02-26T16:20:00.000Z · Kazma 1-1 Al Sahel (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Kazma | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Al Shabab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Fahaheel | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Al Nasar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kazma win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.