· Analysis updated 12:52 UTC
Kazma vs Al Sulaibikhat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Kazma and 0.62 for Al Sulaibikhat, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Kazma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kazma win
69.6% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kazma home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Sulaibikhat away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 2–014.6%
- 3–09.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 60.2% vs market 54.5%, edge +5.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 54.5% | 60.2% | 1.66 | +5.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.20 | 29.6% | 30.4% | 3.29 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.30 | 69.4% | 69.6% | 1.44 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 8.50 | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.43 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.06 | 89.4% | 89.4% | 1.12 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.50 | 20.0% | 19.8% | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.0% | 80.2% | 1.25 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 45.5% | 39.8% | 2.51 | -5.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kazma
- 2026-10-23T14:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Jahra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 3-2 (W)
Al Sulaibikhat
- 2026-10-23T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-11T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Jahra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-31T15:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Shabab · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-23T14:35:00.000Z · Kazma 2-1 Al Sulaibikhat (Premier League)
- 2026-01-04T16:10:00.000Z · Kazma 1-1 Al Sulaibikhat (Crown Prince Cup)
- 2020-12-17T13:00:00.000Z · Kazma 2-0 Al Sulaibikhat (Premier League)
- 2017-04-21T14:30:00.000Z · Kazma 0-1 Al Sulaibikhat (Premier League)
- 2016-12-24T13:00:00.000Z · Kazma 1-0 Al Sulaibikhat (Premier League)
- 2016-02-18T16:25:00.000Z · Kazma 1-1 Al Sulaibikhat (Premier League)
- 2015-11-21T14:25:00.000Z · Kazma 5-0 Al Sulaibikhat (Premier League)
- 2015-02-28T14:00:00.000Z · Kazma 3-2 Al Sulaibikhat (Premier League)
- 2014-09-19T12:20:00.000Z · Kazma 1-1 Al Sulaibikhat (Premier League)
- 2014-03-14T14:10:00.000Z · Kazma 1-1 Al Sulaibikhat (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Kazma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Nasar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 4 | Al Fahaheel | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kazma win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.