· Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
KCB vs Chebaiywa Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for KCB and 0.62 for Chebaiywa Lions, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives KCB the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
KCB win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KCB to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 26% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for KCB and 0.62 for Chebaiywa Lions, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 36%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 59% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 2–013.5%
- 0–011.8%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
KCB
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Posta Rangers FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mathare United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nairobi United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-14T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabana · 2-1 (W)
Chebaiywa Lions
- 2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs KCB · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Shield Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bandari | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Tusker | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | KCB | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Mfalme | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Nairobi United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Ulinzi Stars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | BB Bread | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Homeboyz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Kariobangi Sharks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | KUTA Collection | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | 3K | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Posta Rangers FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Chebaiywa Lions | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Murang'a SEAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is KCB win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.