KDV vs Dinamo Barnaul Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for KDV and 0.88 for Dinamo Barnaul, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives KDV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

KDV win

76.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.73 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

KDV home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KDV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 14% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.73 goals for KDV and 0.88 for Dinamo Barnaul, a combined 3.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 54%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

KDV win76%

Draw14%

Dinamo Barnaul win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

2–010.1%
3–09.2%
2–18.9%
3–18.1%
1–07.4%

Recent form

KDV

2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Barnaul · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Akron II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 2-1 (W)

Dinamo Barnaul

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs KDV · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	18	2	2	41	56
2	KDV	22	17	2	3	20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	13	4	5	18	43
4	Akron II	22	10	2	10	12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	6	9	7	-1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	7	5	10	-19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	6	8	8	-4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	5	8	9	-2	23
9	Ural II	22	5	7	10	-10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	4	8	10	-10	20
11	Nosta	22	4	6	12	-28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	4	5	13	-17	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is KDV win, at 76.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.